I think it's going to make 50 million plus, and have already bet on over 45, purely based off of this article:
1 in 2 Adult Moviegoers Plan to See The Matrix: Revolutions
Wednesday November 5, 9:03 am ET
ARLINGTON, Va., Nov. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- A recent eBrain poll of a nationally representative sample of nearly 700 online adult (18+) moviegoers confirms that the Matrix: Revolutions and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King will dominate the box office this holiday season. High levels of awareness and buzz of these two films certainly contribute to high rates of intent to see among moviegoers.
Among households with children under the age of 12, Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat is the clear favorite, as two-thirds of this segment expect to take their kids to the theater for a showing this holiday season.
Many factors impact success at the box office. "Movie awareness is certainly a key component, but there is not always a perfect correlation between consumer knowledge of a movie and the number of tickets sold," states Joseph Bates, eBrain Director of Research. Films that currently have low levels of awareness, but relatively high rates of intent to see include Cold Mountain, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Mona Lisa Smile.
Sample of Upcoming Movie Releases
Awareness Intent to See Movie
87% 57% The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
90% 52% The Matrix: Revolutions
78% 40% Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat
56% 26% The Last Samurai
43% 21% Peter Pan
34% 20% Timeline
23% 17% Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
21% 17% Cold Mountain
24% 15% Mona Lisa Smile
31% 13% Gothika
While the movie itself is the primary focus of attention, several elements determine whether the moviegoer has a satisfying experience or not. Overall, the survey results indicate that a great movie experience is defined first and foremost by comfortable, roomy seats. Across nearly all demographic segmentations, such as age, gender, and income, seating ranks highest. Among women, the next most important element is cleanliness, while for men, a great sound system ranks second.
Ranking of Importance of Movie Theater Characteristics
Rank Movie Theater Characteristic
1st Comfortable, roomy seats
2nd Cleanliness
3rd Great sound system
4th Stadium seating
5th Extra large screen
6th Available parking
7th Large selection of concession items
These preliminary results are part of an on-going eBrain syndicated study covering the consumer entertainment experience, from the movie theater to the living room. The next iteration of the study will begin 1st quarter 2004.
1 in 2 Adult Moviegoers Plan to See The Matrix: Revolutions
Wednesday November 5, 9:03 am ET
ARLINGTON, Va., Nov. 5 /PRNewswire/ -- A recent eBrain poll of a nationally representative sample of nearly 700 online adult (18+) moviegoers confirms that the Matrix: Revolutions and The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King will dominate the box office this holiday season. High levels of awareness and buzz of these two films certainly contribute to high rates of intent to see among moviegoers.
Among households with children under the age of 12, Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat is the clear favorite, as two-thirds of this segment expect to take their kids to the theater for a showing this holiday season.
Many factors impact success at the box office. "Movie awareness is certainly a key component, but there is not always a perfect correlation between consumer knowledge of a movie and the number of tickets sold," states Joseph Bates, eBrain Director of Research. Films that currently have low levels of awareness, but relatively high rates of intent to see include Cold Mountain, Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World, and Mona Lisa Smile.
Sample of Upcoming Movie Releases
Awareness Intent to See Movie
87% 57% The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King
90% 52% The Matrix: Revolutions
78% 40% Dr. Seuss' The Cat in the Hat
56% 26% The Last Samurai
43% 21% Peter Pan
34% 20% Timeline
23% 17% Master and Commander: The Far Side of the World
21% 17% Cold Mountain
24% 15% Mona Lisa Smile
31% 13% Gothika
While the movie itself is the primary focus of attention, several elements determine whether the moviegoer has a satisfying experience or not. Overall, the survey results indicate that a great movie experience is defined first and foremost by comfortable, roomy seats. Across nearly all demographic segmentations, such as age, gender, and income, seating ranks highest. Among women, the next most important element is cleanliness, while for men, a great sound system ranks second.
Ranking of Importance of Movie Theater Characteristics
Rank Movie Theater Characteristic
1st Comfortable, roomy seats
2nd Cleanliness
3rd Great sound system
4th Stadium seating
5th Extra large screen
6th Available parking
7th Large selection of concession items
These preliminary results are part of an on-going eBrain syndicated study covering the consumer entertainment experience, from the movie theater to the living room. The next iteration of the study will begin 1st quarter 2004.
Here are a few more reasons why I like my bet for 50 million or more at Intertops for +200
- Universal’s huge marketing campaign
- Mike Myer's huge fan base.
- Best selling children's book of all times.
- Parents won't mind taking their kids to this as they're all interested in the movie, being once children themselves having Cat In The Hat read to them.
- Universal’s huge marketing campaign
- Mike Myer's huge fan base.
- Best selling children's book of all times.
- Parents won't mind taking their kids to this as they're all interested in the movie, being once children themselves having Cat In The Hat read to them.
It should have been a shoe-in for 50 million but all the bad reviews and the mediocre trailer are going to hurt it. They might have dropped the ball with this one but with the name alone and Myers as the star I don't see why it would do a lot worse than Grinch which did 50+, and that movie didn't get the greatest reviews in the world, either.
"Just got back from picking up two tickets for the 8:00 PM showing of Gothika at my local theater, and as I pulled into the parking lot I noticed that it was insanely full for a Friday afternoon. I asked the guy selling tickets what people were seeing, and he said that Master and Commander was selling the best. Every afternoon show was on the verge of selling out! He said that CITH was pretty dissapointing thus far.
Other than that, nothing too exciting."
